There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Friday, January 30, 2015

30012015


 This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis

37 comments:

  1. Hi ST,
    I took BOF PDL Long in the End but failed
    Please advise

    thanks
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why trading into a strong flip of BW range. That too CTwhere positional unwinding is going on
      The area was too congested with PDL, NS RN, RN and BW range flip

      ST

      Delete
  2. And I was looking for Long rather than short in the are where you marked PP

    thanks
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will long if a BOF happened at BW range low.
      No guarantee that a PP can work. I will prefer a TST at range high to short

      ST

      Delete
  3. ST SIr,

    Thanks for the Chart.
    Sir, Barbed wire (short height swing range?), FLUID, PP means ?

    Thanks,
    Neethi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All these are well explained in separate posts
      Go through all the important posts listed below the blog

      ST

      Delete
  4. Sir good evening and thnx for the update

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi ST,

    Have a great time on your vacation.

    Today was one of the simplest and most profitable days. Made 167 points in 3 trades :)
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0i1QniVJ3Hg/VMuN-jFH_pI/AAAAAAAAblE/cYjwl6jHHjI/s800/20150130.PNG

    - TSR

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Made 167 points!!!
      where are your exits?

      Delete
    2. Hi ST, Thanks!

      Hi Dhatta, Mine is a semi automated trading system. All entries and exits are SL triggers. I book 50% profit at the first target and rest is trailed. The previous entry/target becomes my SL. The rules defined in my system are quite complex and include entry scaling as well as profit scaling. I'm still tweaking my system. :)

      Delete
  6. Sir how it can be known about this positional unwinding is going on,kindly update thnx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Market is already over extended and due for a correction. once a gap up fails and price fails to reverse on gap closure week longs will start exiting

      ST

      Delete
  7. just finished book by lance beggs many things are clear now...................

    ReplyDelete
  8. sir from last one confusion in some things like BOmonths i am watching your trades i some what understand your method it works very well.There is some F/TST/BW/BPB i read your book but my confusion is not cleared.PL HELP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Go through all the important posts listed below the blog

      ST

      Delete
    2. Vinayak, check the glossary at the bottom of the page.

      Delete
  9. Hi ST,

    I am not sure if you will reply this, but this is important:

    See around 10:45 the price is stalling at PDH with long legged bars. Do you see this as an area to make TST entry?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do not attempt CT TST trades without confirmation. Wait for multiple tests to fail
      Other wise wait for a BOF to happen to go long. Or wait for the break of that MC within which NF traded for 20 minutes
      TST trades are blind trades. When in doubt stay out. If you feel the level will hold go long near to 8950 area and risk 5-6 points. Many such trades will fail and there are no certainties in trading

      ST

      Delete
    2. BTW, would like to mention here, there is a mismatch in the chart. Previous day's chart is of Jan series and current day's chart is of Feb Series. So there is a mismatch PDH and PDC. The Feb series chart would be like this using exchange data.
      http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PALLNeSBQT8/VM0dZfCmh7I/AAAAAAAAblY/5uNMaoUWZ_s/s800/Nifty-Feb.PNG

      Delete
    3. I used continuous current month contract chart.First day there will be a gap up due to premium factor
      I have tried both type of charts with the method. I think most of the professionals trade continuous charts because I felt market responds to these levels better

      ST

      Delete
    4. Hi ST.
      Hope you are having a great trip!!! I made many mistakes yesterday. One of them was taking a long above 10:39. My logic was like this:

      a) the breakdown of 9:57 low of congestion (marked with red circle) did not look genuine and convincing.
      b) PDH, PDC and RN were below and price looked like it was getting support there.

      Please correct my thinking.

      You said this was a CT trade, it was below 9000, but above PDH, daily in rally, would it still be a CT trade? Was it CT because it was below the previous high of 28th Jan? Thanks for your help.

      Delete
    5. ST,
      Forgot to give this chart. I looked at it like this long...http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img537/1159/0sFweH.png Thanks for your help

      Delete
    6. I am posting a 10 minute chart to understand the big picture
      http://screencast.com/t/wLKKqKOZ

      ST

      Delete
  10. Thank you ST. http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img631/7157/0UAfoX.png

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rajesh,

    I presume you today top down analysis before the market begins.

    Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Thanks as usual for the excellent analysis !

    With Kind Regards,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Markets cannot be traded without knowing the big picture
      especially when price trades outside the previous day range

      ST

      Delete
  12. Already missing your acute market observations master :)

    ReplyDelete
  13. can u or anyone suggest me some books or blogs or websites about
    1 risk and money managament
    2 trading pshycology

    ReplyDelete
  14. Its all about work....
    President Barack Obama was asked...
    “When is the time you felt most broken?” Pres Obama's response:
    “I first ran for Congress in 1999, and I got beat. I just got whooped. I had been in the state legislature for a long time, I was in the minority party, I wasn’t getting a lot done, and I was away from my family and putting a lot of strain on Michelle. Then for me to run and lose that bad, I was thinking maybe this isn’t what I was cut out to do. I was forty years old, and I’d invested a lot of time and effort into something that didn’t seem to be working. But the thing that got me through that moment, and any other time that I’ve felt stuck, is to remind myself that it’s about the work. Because if you’re worrying about yourself—if you’re thinking: ‘Am I succeeding? Am I in the right position? Am I being appreciated?’ --- then you’re going to end up feeling frustrated and stuck. But if you can keep it about the work, you’ll always have a path. There’s always something to be done.”

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi ST,
    waiting for your updates :) ........

    rgds
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi ST,

    Eagerly waiting for your charts.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Sir, Its 10th Feb now. Plz start blogging fast........ missing ur analysis

    ReplyDelete

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