There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

28012015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis
Nifty opened within previous day range. Failed to go below BRN. Went long on second test. Exited on BOF of PDC.Another long on BPB of PDH. TP when price consolidated in a tight trading range. I expected a FTC there. But price broke above the range. I kept a limit sell at BRN 9000. Nifty reversed before that . Missed the down move.

35 comments:

  1. Hi ST
    Where would have been the short trade which you missed??

    Thanks
    TBP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expected an attempt to move above 8970 again and a failure
      Thought of going short below 8960 if it happened

      ST

      Delete
    2. But I was expecting a TRAP kind of thing @8960..
      wouldn't it be better to stay with a strong trend.. ?

      Delete
    3. That option was also open. I exited after a topping tail bar and it showed resistance
      So thought a breakdown is more likely

      ST

      Delete
  2. Good Evening ST
    Thanks for the chart.
    I didn't enter any trade today, Please comment on my Trading opportunities today.
    http://rajudptrades.blogspot.in/
    Raju

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1 is good. 2 you can go long on BPB of PDH and not at RN. 3 is also good
      Avoid the others as there were too many levels and price was kind of channeling down

      ST

      Delete
  3. ST
    i sorted on ist move at PDC as it was gap down closed at when it failed to break days low in 2nd attempt missed long at pdh then again sorted at pdh was it a valid trade please guide and what made you consider to short at 9000
    sunil minz

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trend was still up and move from PDH to BRN was just a pull back
      In an up trend expect supports to hold and resistance to break
      9000 is just an intuition and I expect a 20-30 point bounce on first test

      ST

      Delete
  4. ST
    shorted at PDH after the downmove was it valid trade
    sunil minz

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sir,

    1.) Where you exited in your first trade, was it advisable to take BOF short ?

    2.) After vertical fall , bias turned very negative . Why didn't you take TST short @1324 on retest. FTA in the form of BRN was also >20 points away ?

    regards,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. Stay with the trend
      TST came after a BOF of PDC. So was not very confident

      ST

      Delete
  6. Dear ST,

    I have some questions:-
    1. You exited on BOF of PDC. Why didnt you then went short here? I think its because BRN 8900 was too close. This would have been a scratch trade.
    2. Why the BOF long of BRN 8900 not taken. BO happened around 2 pm. This trade would have stopped out.
    3. IF the above trade wasnt taken due to bearish bias, why the BPB short of BRN 8900 not taken. This trade would have been a small loss trade.

    Its very difficult to estimate which trades to take and which trades to avoid :(

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1.Bias was bullish and don't wanted to go short. BRN was also NS BRN a strong confluence which I thought will not break without strong order flow. BOF of PDC was not enough to trap critical mass and break such a strong level, I felt
      2.BOF of BRN was CT and it was making lower lows. So waited for a retest fail
      3.After a fall of 100 points against the prevailing trend we cannot expect a further fall without some consolidation. Avoid over extended moves

      That is what makes trading difficult and that is why trading opportunities arise. If we get it right we will make money otherwise we lose. As we gain experience we will start making better decisions

      ST

      Delete
  7. ST,
    Many querries today.

    1.What made you to take BPB PDH trade when we already moved 40 points from bottom and top of the range and we had yesterdays strong move too.. so today expecting sideways to down day

    2. Didnt understand your pdc failure exit.Price never closed below the pdc where u exited .

    3.Where will u keep shorts at 9.45 when BRN fails

    4.Why no longs at 13.57 high brn, irl failure

    5.Also not short below 14.21 BPB lod

    Thanks and Regards

    Bharat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1.ATR of Nifty is now at 109 and 40 point is less than half of that.Nifty is in Rally mode and making HH and HL. In a rally mode expect price to break PDH and make a new high
      2.Price failed to move above previous peek and fell below PDC. I hate to lose my first trade and even a small win is a psychological boost for me. Well begone half done
      3.These are all blind trades, Ziad style. A limit buy order at 8900 and a SL limit order at 8890 with 10 point risk. It is a reverse sniper shot
      4.It was all chop up and down 15-20 point candles. I stay away during such volatility. It is very difficult to trade such moves with a 10 point SL
      5.Same

      ST.

      Delete
  8. At 1309 candle there was BOF of PDC. Then at 1357 candle there was BOF of BRN and DL (both turned out to be Traps eventuallly). Why you didn't consider going Long at these points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After such sudden sell offs there will be a lot of volatility.Better to stay out during the period
      It is disastrous to trade such volatility with a 10 point stop where single candles exceed 15-20 points
      Simply looking at patterns wont work. Be well aware of what is happening around. Avoid unfavorable situations

      ST

      Delete
  9. Thanks ST.
    Question: What is your opinion on Scaling out ? Thinking of Experimenting with scale out target especially in CT moves.
    Any pointers ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have not tried it. It can be considered

      ST

      Delete
  10. ST Sir,

    Thanks for the chart.

    After rallied upto 8960 area it halted for about 1 hour, then it went upto 8985 after that immediately started drifting down.

    ques: when consolidated most of the traders put their "Sell" orders, 8960 to 8985 went for the stop-losses put by the traders ?
    otherwise, it may be drift down from 8960 area itself ?

    sorry, the real aspect will be something different, let me know yours please ?

    Thanks,
    Neethi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stop loss orders are only a part of the order flow. Fresh buying or selling can also bring order flow
      Many times fresh order flow can overwhelm stop orders

      ST

      Delete
  11. Hi there,

    Even I took the same trades which you did. Its only the second trade was in opposite direction of yours, you took BPB and I took BOF of PDH . Scratched it before its too late. Was it a wrong trade, if yes than can you explain what went wrong?

    Thanks in anticipation
    Akash

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stay with the trend. Avoid CT trends in strong markets.
      Price moved up 8 candles without a pull back. Allow a pull back
      Further in rally mode always expect the price to break PDH to make a new high

      ST

      Delete
    2. Hello sir,

      Thank you very much for patiently answering everyone's question. Explanation of today's trading session has solved many of my confusions.

      Thank you
      Akash

      Delete
  12. Can you share your thought for not shorting below 13:24 bar after TST of PDH.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PDC is an area which resisted twice in the morning session. Price fall found support at this flip
      Then a BOF of PDC happened. I was not confident to short into PDC again.

      ST

      Delete
  13. Hi ST,
    Thanks for all your valuable posts.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sir You said you placed a limit sell order at 9000; May I knw why u placed it ? Just bcoz it was a BRN ? A CT trade without TST can be traded ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The move was already over extended. Price was moving in an uncharted area.
      9000 is the next strong resistance from where one can expect strong opposing order flow.
      Price is moving up vertically from 8960 and will get exhausted by the time it reaches 9000 ripe for a correction
      It was not a trade under the method and do not attempt it.

      ST

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply sir. I wont attempt any trade that isn't mentioned here. Have lost enough trying to guess tops and bottoms.

      Delete
  15. how to know wen the main bias and ongoing bias changing or changed?

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.