There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

27012015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis
Nifty opened within previous day range. First candle became a big MC and acted as IR. Short on TST of PDH. covered when price bounced from IRL. PDC was just below it. Thought of going long on retest of IRL. But there was no retest. Another short on BOF of PDH failed immediately creating a minor TRAP. Exited at a small loss and went long on BPB of PDH. This moved well beyond my target BRN

24 comments:

  1. Thanks ST
    Your last trade was wonderful.
    Need your guidance where to consider / not consider the tails while marking lines.
    Today your PDH ignored tails, whereas the IRL was marked with tails.
    Raju

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tails are always tricky.We will never know where orders are.Initially I draw lines ignoring tails and adjust later on when retests prove the correct level. Ignoring tails work most of the time. Today also the real level was the original one without tail. I did not change as there was no relevance for that level in my trades
      http://screencast.com/t/TUpKttex2OYG

      ST

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    2. With your first IRL without tails,11:45 candle was rebounce after test of IRL. Why did you not consider exit above this candle.

      Delete
    3. A bounce is natural and I expected it. My entry was at 8870 with a limit order. Once 11.15 pivot low broke I brought down my stop to 11.39 bar high, above the flip area, which was the BO bar high and protected a profit of 12.50 points. Why should I micro manage and lose a likely fall to PDL?

      ST

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    4. Hi ST,
      If you had taken the BOF IRL long, would you have exited below 13:36 or somewhere else? Thanks.

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the nice explanation with stoploss bars with time. It clears a lot.

      Delete
    6. I will exit here I went short

      ST

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  2. ST
    my trades were same as of you only i missed long as i thought space is limited what made you of going long
    sunil minz

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FTA was BRN 8900 and it was 20 points away. 20 point is good enough

      ST

      Delete
  3. Sir,

    Regarding your first trade - I placed a direct BO Long above PDH after price consolidated for more than half hour. Luckily that order was not filled, thanks to your RN concept. How did you judge that it was Absorption and shorted correctly?

    Thanks,
    S.Karthikeyan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There was no momentum to the upside. Market is a living organism and will never allow the order flow to dry up. It will create its own order flow trapping traders. If a trend move stalls at a level usually it will drift down to a lower support level creating a lot of shorts and will reverse forcing all of them to exit. Market will ride these orders to a new high

      High probability trades occurs when a CT move stalls and reverses.First short trade stalled at FTA IRL. The reversal moved 100 points. Manage CT trades tightly and allow the trend trades to run. You must focus on reading price action and market bias. Hunting for patterns will never work
      http://carlfutia.blogspot.in/2009/08/here-is-first-of-two-post-by-fellow.html

      ST

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    2. Sir,
      Thank you so much for the detailed reply.
      S.Karthikeyan

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    3. thank you for sharing the link, it was very informative and interesting

      Delete
  4. hello,

    Markets have been trending lately, since yours is day-trading strategy how is it comparing with simply buy and hold trend following?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.
      My method is making a reasonable amount of money in all kind of markets and I am not bothered about what other methods can make.

      ST

      Delete
  5. ST Sir,
    Thanks for the chart. your last trade was excellent. learning each day a lesson from your chart.

    Today done following 2 wrong trades.
    1) Thought 9:33 bar is previou day's MSP , Entered short at 9:36 bar, exited at 9:42 with minimum loss.
    2) after making sure about BOF of PDH entered short at 14:06 exited at 14:15 bar.
    please correct me.

    Thanks,
    Neethi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MSP is applicable in a trend.
      Today 13.33 bar low was MSP. 13.54 bar tried to break this low and failed
      it was a TRAP pattern at MSP and showed BOF of PDH is not working. Look for a signal to go long and do not short

      ST

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    2. understanding the points, thank you sir.

      Neethi

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  6. Hi ST,

    Did you miss out vwap? vwap was near 8860 near 3pm. I was planning to book my trades at around 3pm at 8911 but decided to hold 10mins more keeping a small SL at 8903 and managed to book my trade at R3, 8935.65.
    No shorts for me today as IRL was not touched.
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SW7YHTr43YY/VMfqons2BmI/AAAAAAAAbks/8-dVExTPMmg/s800/20150127.png

    - TSR

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice trade.
      I did not look at VWAP. Simply trailed

      ST

      Delete
  7. Hi Rajesh,

    The below link to the blog from Zaid and Gladiator X was very interesting and informative. Thank you for sharing.

    http://carlfutia.blogspot.in/2009/08/here-is-first-of-two-post-by-fellow.html

    ReplyDelete

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