There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Thursday, January 8, 2015

08012015

This is an illustrative example of the concepts being discussed.Markings are just visualizations on historical data in hindsight analysis   
Nifty gaped up above PDH. Pulled back to BRN. Went long on TST of BRN. Covered when price was not able to scale NS BRN 8200 for 20 points. Then it was a grinding up move. Suspected a channel and did not attempt the BO trade. Missed the best move of the day

26 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. After the entry , I allowed a pull back. Then raised my SL below this swing low
      Squared off when price retraced that green WRB

      ST

      Delete
  2. hi st,
    is considering 8260 as msp according to 6 jan is right or not i have taken a bof trade and stopped out .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. In an up trend MSP is always a swing low
      When you took short MSP was 8640

      ST

      Delete
    2. so its better to consider msp as per eod charts

      Delete
    3. You have not understood the concept correctly, I think
      http://niftynirvana.blogspot.in/2012/12/major-swing-pivots.html

      ST

      Delete
    4. thanks .............is it 8240 u want to say instead of 8640

      Delete
    5. Oh sorry. It was a typo. I did not notice
      8240

      ST

      Delete
  3. Hi ST,
    Would you have taken BOF RN short at around 2:30 if market had given a chance , since critical mass was long?
    rgds
    Kishore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. Last impulse may act as a range.
      I will wait for the MSP to crack as it is very near

      ST

      Delete
    2. Hi ST,
      So did you place a short order below MSP near RN ?

      thanks
      Kishore

      Delete
  4. No. Price will take support at IRH.
    Why should one look to short here. Price was consolidating till 2 PM and has just broken out
    Daily has made a HH and HL and changed into Rally mode.
    Daily in rally mode
    Price above PDC
    Price above DO
    Price in a higher range
    Price making HH and HL
    Last DP crack is to the upside
    MSP did not crack.
    Trade not at a DP
    Open was a CT outside gap
    There is no space
    Cant say critical mass long. Most of them might have entered on IRH break
    Favorable order flow can only be expected below 8220
    Logical SL is 25 point away
    Any of these observations favor a short?

    ST



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rajesh,
      Thanks for the simple detailed explanation !
      Long @8200
      Excruciating wait from 10:18 to 13:54 with SL 8205
      Covered @8270
      Thanks Rajesh for all the market gyan !
      With Kind Regards

      Delete
  5. Sir,
    Please clear following point
    [IMG]http://i61.tinypic.com/21dlf95.png[/IMG]

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was not a convincing BOF. A BOF should trap many BO traders
      Price never broke the days first candle high to trap BO traders
      Read the above reply to Pai. Nothing favours a short. Dont look for patterns in isolation
      Stay with the market Bias

      ST

      Delete
    2. I too took this short. After gap up, price was lacking momentum to break out over IRH. Multiple attempts at IRH failed, So I decided to go short. However on hindsight, it indeed was not a very favorable trade. Price was making HH , HL although in a grinding manner. And as ST, also pointed out, the high of the first bar was not broken.

      Delete
  6. Hi there,

    I took the trade the moment it got reversed at BRN 8200, it got filled at 8204. I put stop loss of 10 points. It made a barbed wire pattern and I got stopped out on 09:51 candle. My question is what made you wait till the second TST and what was your initial stop loss? If possible tell me what was my mistake?

    Thanks in anticipation
    Akash

    ReplyDelete
  7. It is always better to wait for a second test for such TST trades
    TST trades will not have trapped traders order flow like a BOF
    There is nothing wrong with your entry or exit. It may happen many times
    Try to enter as close as the level possible so that you get maximum room.
    If you could enter at 8200 with a SL at 8190, you may not get shaken out
    Please note the price action. 13 candles traded at 8200 and that is 45 minutes

    ST

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi ST,
      Please note the price action. 13 candles traded at 8200 and that is 45 minutes" --> Can elaborate this please. Do you mean number of Trapped traders are more with this ?

      Delete
    2. Nothing related to trapped traders. Just telling all these 13 candles provided an opportunity for a better entry
      If you reading is that a particular level is going to hold , try to get an entry as close as possible

      ST

      Delete
  8. Hallo, ST,
    After long there are 8 green candles and 2 red and next one though green but with inverted hammer. My question what you made to stop from taking an exit from your long position at this moment? You have squared off your position with what logic?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not pay much attention to these candles. I allowed a pull back and when price failed to move above the earlier swing high which was also NS BRN, I exited. There is another reason which you may not find rational and in fact some what ridiculous. A profit in the first trade of the day gives a psychological boost and comfort. well begun is half done

      ST

      Delete
  9. Hi St. I choose to stay out today. Out in first session because there were too many whipsaws around BRN. Wasn't around during second half but I doubt if BO Long orders would have executed given speed of upmove. There certainly wasn't any PB .. wasn't the second half trade a BO?

    https://niftytradediary.wordpress.com/2015/01/09/8-jan-2015/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was suspecting a channel and stayed out

      ST

      Delete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.