There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading Derivatives . Losses can and will occur. My methods will not ensure profits

Monday, September 22, 2014


Nifty Gaped down below PDL.As expected some consolidation. Formed a Cigarette pattern and finally broke the upside. Went long on BPB of PDL as price entered back into the previous day range.When price bounced from PDC I thought trade will  fail and raised the stop to BO bar low. But escaped from stop out. Then it was just trailing till the BPB of PDH failed. Only one trade today


  1. When i was looking for exit on a BOF of PDH. You were exited on a BPB failure. SMART exit...

  2. Hi ST,
    Took two trades .Both stopped out .

    Since it was CT gap I thought of going short thinking the longs will panic and exit.
    Trade 1:- Short below first bar as BPB .Failed
    Trade 2 :- BOF of IRH .
    Please advice

    thanks n rgds

    1. If price gaps or spike nearly 50 points, that is the difference of option strikes, always anticipate a consolidation.
      It could also be a channel after a spike or a FTC. Here it was a FTC
      Prefer trade signals at DPs. I was looking for a BOF of BRN or a LOL of BRN/PDL


    2. thanks ST
      So whr was your short after 2 hrs of trading ?


    3. After a minor BOF of range high, I entered a short order at 8079
      Later cancelled it as there was no momentum


  3. ST,

    Why u avoided shorts below 11.30 it was not able to move above IRH third time and then range low broken. What was the thought process there. ?

    Wasnt yesterdays close FTA for u when u took entry after strong move?.. which seemed to be loosing momentum with small bars
    having wicks above them? What gave u confidence to enter there.

    Thanks and Regards


    1. The range was very narrow. Just 10 points. When did the range low break?
      Range low was 8th bar low. Flip of 2nd bar pivot high which never break. FTA LOD was very close also
      Pay attention to round numbers also.
      My order was below the flip and round number 8080

      Price climbing back to the previous day range is a major transition. An outside day is changing to an inside day


  4. Sir good evening sir this was mentioned in your comment on 18/9/14 We expect a down move.Wait for a BOF of range high BRN or a BPB of PDL,sir i am unable to understand the BPB of PDL,kindly explain thru a chart thnx

    1. We have to pay attention to the DP above and below current price.
      If you bias is down. Look for a BOF of higher DP or BPB of lower DP to go short
      BO of lower DP is not preferred


  5. i have visited ur blog in feb .i have studied ur all posts and all ur old trades in march and april.
    in may started paper trading and training my mind.
    may, june, july paper traded and prepared initial trade plan and in aug , september till date trading only BOF and BPB with bais, space with 1 lot, simultaneosly identifying other setups and review all, and improving my initial trade plan based on mistakes and taking up every step or a concept every week to study and include in the plan.
    currently im working on bias( a part of trade plan) in my mind and how to change it fastly when price unfolds
    here is my bias thaughts today. please review and give feedback
    i have devided biases as main bias , initial bias, main ongoing bias,present ongoing bias ,future bias( future price direction)
    1 before open, main bias was up
    2 after open main bias down,initial bias down,
    3 after price moved up IR , main bias down, initial bias down (not relevent since initial move over) .main ongoing bias up
    4 after price makes a range above IR, main bias no change, main ongoing bias up, present ongoing bias sideways, future price movement may be up or down(watch for it and look for trades at extremes with other factors score)
    5 after breakout and went above PDL all my bias are up, now look for long with all other factors .

    1. Your reading is right. Do not complicate too much. Look where the price is trading. This will give a clue about current trend in trading time frame.
      Current range above or below the previous range?
      Last DP crack. Upside or Downside?
      Further you look at Micro trend in daily. If it matches with trading time frame trend expect the trade to move well. Otherwise suspect the move and manage the trade tight.


    2. yes its look like complicated but my mind developed the schemas for that step. knowing whether to look for long or short before other factors(SCORE) is half done.
      first main bias is up or down( rally or decline mode), i change it only wen ongoing price moves above PDH or below PDL
      second initial bias , just open( gap up or down /outside gap or inside/CT or with trend), i look for trade , if both bias are same with score its high probability trade, if both are not same with score den low probability trade(manage tight), if no score den wait .
      third after price moves i discard initial bias in my process loop and look for main ongoing bias( includes present price movement)
      for ongoing bias i see last DP break and range up or down,if ongoing bias and present move are same, main ongoing bias is strong, if ongoing bias and present move not same with score den weak signal,if no SCORE skip
      if both main bias and main ongoing bias are same its high prob.. trade, i visualise future probable price direction with SCORE , if both bias not same with score its low prob trade( manage tight), if no score den skip and wait for other signals.
      like that i can manage risk by managing SL tight or skip trade or increase or decrease position size in future( now 1 lot only)
      if bias changing ( break of MSP), present bias changes and den main ongoing bias changes and den main bias changes on break of PDH /PDL

    3. What you learned is enough. Start executing. Focus on repetitions
      You will make a lot of mistake and regret after each and every trade
      But somewhere it will click


  6. Hi all,
    I have often gone around in circles looking for free historic data for backtesting. Some times its wild goose chase, at other times its corrupted data. radiosilk at traderji has provided a whole lot of data here and it is clean as far as I can tell I am not sure if years old data will help, but all of it is there and you can pull out just what you need and use it with Amibroker.


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